Thursday, March 25, 2010

Close, Low, Bright Eyes Fading

If I had to pick a team to become a fan of based solely on play from this season, I'd pick the Atlanta Hawks, glance longingly at OKC, but be satisfied with my decision. I'd second guess it a few times, but ultimately cling to the ATL for the long term. It's not that they're stacked at every position (Bibby has lost whatever magical powers his Sacramento outfit bestowed upon him, and their front court consists of players who are all pretty much playing out of position. You can't tell me Al Horford wouldn't make an excellent PF.) but that they all seem to mesh together, and they play a legitimately exciting form of basketball, without being too flashy or being too much of a Goliath to root for.

[/end love letter to Hawks]

Anyways, I think Josh Smith is a bonafide candidate for Defensive Player of the Year (even with his blocks slightly down from his career average, he's playing some of the best defense of his career right now off the ball), and Jamal Crawford should be the front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year (18 ppg in 30 minutes off the bench, not even taking into acount the clutch threes or when he decides to rain buckets upon everyone's head).

So, what this post is really about is my belief that either Al Horford or Josh Smith could be considered Most Improved Player for 09-10.

I consider Smith a candidate because he dramatically improved his shot selection (career high in FG%) and his off-ball defense. He doesn't dominate games on offense, though he can take over when he needs to, and he's found a healthy balance between taking advantage of his physical gifts and being a multi-dimensional player. Most importantly, he hasn't taken a three all season. As a lifetime 26.6% three point shooter, it's a sign of maturation on his part. One wishes that Charles Barkley (who put up identical three point numbers) would have taken the same hint.

Al Horford is a candidate because of the way he impacts games on both ends of the floor. He crashes the ever-loving FUCK out of the offensive boards (2.8 per game, though it always feels like more.) He also seems to be developing a nice little face-up jumper that's been useful from the high post when he grabs a long rebound.

Both players are impacting their team in positive ways that they had not been in the past. Unfortunately, I don't know exactly how the league decides on MIP beyond the fact that it's put to a vote not dissimilar to the MVP voting. What I do know is that the voters seem to put an emphasis on improved numbers. Without looking at advanced metrics, Josh Smith and Al Horford have put up seasons that are both consistent with the 08-09 campaign and their career averages.

Do voters care about intangibles? If they do, Smith and Horford are probably going to get knocked out of the way by Zach Randolph, great teammate and patrolman of the glass.

That said, I consider them candidates, not front runners. Grabbing a few votes or even just being considered is a pretty big deal, a sort of moral victory. They deserve it, even if other players deserve it more.

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