Kobe's about to hit the 39k mark in about half a season. This doesn't take into account playoff minutes, which put him just a hair over 43k. 43,000 minutes played against the most vicious basketball competition on Earth. We'll ignore his Olympic minutes, though those have contributed to the wear and tear on the Implacable Man.
2,863 minutes per regular season.
(Assuming he plays every game for the rest of the season) 79.2 games per regular season, at 36.6 minutes a game. Take into account the fact that his first two seasons he only played about 3,000 minutes combined, which would be a god damn vacation for the man at this point.
I may not like Kobe, but I respect his style of play immensely, and his work ethic and sheer determination are dumbfounding.
That said, his body is going to start falling apart very quickly. He doesn't drive to the basket nearly as much as he has in the past, and his decline will soon be evident in other aspects of his game. It won't happen overnight, though. It'll be gradual, and like all great declining stars, he will be forced to adapt.
This summer, he learned the Dream Shake. One, that's super cool and makes me jealous that I can't Megaman from NBA stars. Two, it indicates that he knows that he'll lose a step, and like latter-day Jordan, he'll be making his points in the paint.
If he's determined to follow the trajectory of Jordan's career to a T, this is probably his best bet. He's got the size to be a small forward, and he can still get his jumpers in. He'll probably lead the league in FG%, just to prove that he can. Kobe will be hoisting whatever team that will take him onto his back, marching into the sunset until his ACLs disintegrate and he burns out brightly, averaging 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists a game.
(For what it's worth, I think Kobe will always be able to drop 20 in a game, even if not consistently. As someone who flirted with the Kings in his youth and currently follows the Spurs, it's guaranteed that Kobe will get his. I've seen it happen over and over.)
That would be boring, though, and Kobe always had the potential to be something cool and different than Jordan. I am, of course, referring to Frobe Bryant:
25-6-6, team player, clutch shooter, controversy free. Just quietly competitive and trying to get his. Mmm, early Kobe. Also a more than competent defensive stopper.
Yes, I know he doesn't have the afro in that one. That's beside the point.
Imagine if Kobe Bryant decided that he'd fulfill a role not dissimilar to the one he held on the 2008 Olympic team. He'd probably get DPOY, mostly because name recognition, but he'd also be a significant asset to whatever team he was on. Unfortunately, his focus is on being the #1 option on his team, and he wants to be the guy for his team. This probably won't happen.
Of course, this pride is going to lead Kobe on a path that's a little bit Jordan and a little bit different. Kobe will go the way of John Stockton.
"But Greg," you might say, you being the three people who read this blog, "why would he be like John Stockton? Is this because a bunch of Jazz fans have started following you?"
"Yes," I would reply. "But also for another good reason, which I will type instead of speak to you."
Stockton put up scarily consistent numbers. From 87-88 (what I would term his breakout year, as he started 70+ games for the first time) to his retirement in 02-03, his per 36 scoring average is 15.15625. I put up that full number because the standard deviation for these stats is approximately 4.02077936. The biggest deviation in that time span is 0.36 standard deviations away from the norm. For those of you who aren't statistic nerds, that means his scores varied, at most, 14.06% from the mean.
For those of you who aren't math nerds, this means that John Stockton, for 16 years, varied, at most, 2 points from the same production (points-wise) that he had when he was 25. This is, in a word, absurd. His steals appear to be somewhat similar, but I'm too lazy to calculate that at this minute.
Stockton was renowned for his offseason conditioning, which led him to put up consistently good numbers for his entire career (This is a bit of an understatement. Steals and Assists leader, all-time, beating 2nd place by a very comfortable margin, not to mention that he was starting at the age of 40 without being the general manager of a team.). Kobe is also renowned for his work ethic. While not exactly the model of consistency that Stockton is, Kobe has averaged over 20 points a game since the turn of the century, and, save for 03-04, he's averaged at least 25 since 00-01. Kobe is consistently good, and it's unlikely he'll take a sharp decline, but given that Stockton was never the #1 option on his team (The Mailman averaged 20+ from his sophomore year onwards) and never had to carry the Jazz all on his own, Kobe is slowly unraveling at the seams.
That's where the Jordan comes back in. By slowly adjusting his playing style to a more perimeter oriented affair (pre-Wizards, post-72 wins) and maintaining his Stockton-like regiment, Kobe might just beat back Father Time for another 3 or 4 years.
That said, Stockton peaked at 37.8 minutes per game, the year that he set the single season assist record. Kobe is set to break that barrier for the tenth time this season, and as mentioned before, averages just under a minute less than that for his entire career. Can the Lakers survive with Kobe playing 8 minutes less per game next season? Can Kobe survive with not being needed? It all reads like a horrid day time soap, especially this last one: if they can't, can both of them survive Kobe retiring at 36, completely broken down?
If you want to know about the math used in this post, drop me a line at my e-mail, WhoaSnapItsGreg@gmail.com .
ReplyDeleteI spent an hour typing up the math and my computer shut off. </3